Ukip to win Eastleigh byelection, say MSN readers

Nigel Farage, leader of Ukip, campainging in Eastleigh. Image: Chris Ison, PA Wire

The UK Independence party is set for victory in the Eastleigh byelection.

According to a poll of MSN readers, Nigel Farage's party will seize the seat from the Liberal Democrats when the contest takes place on 28 February.

The byelection is being held following the resignation of former MP Chris Huhne, who stood down after admitting to perverting the course of justice.

Over 13,000 votes were cast in the MSN poll.

Asked which party will win the Eastleigh byelection, 38% of people said Ukip, while 35% voted for Labour. Just 19% thought the Tories might win, while only 4% believed the Liberal Democrats would hold on to the seat.

The results of MSN's poll disagree with those produced by the two opinion polls held in Eastleigh since the byelection campaign began.

The first, conducted in the 48 hours following Chris Huhne's resignation, put the Conservatives in front with a three-point lead over their coalition partners. It placed the Tories on 34%, the Lib Dems on 31%, Labour on 19% and Ukip on 13%.

But the second, conducted between Wednesday and Friday, showed the opposite and gave a three-point lead to the Liberal Democrats. The poll put the Lib Dems on 36%, the Tories on 33%, Ukip on 16% and Labour on 13%.

A three-point lead is well within the margin of error. Both polls suggest the result could be very close, but neither suggests Ukip has any chance of winning.

Meanwhile the latest odds show the Lib Dems are favourites to retain Eastleigh.

Bookmakers William Hill put the party 10/11 to hold the seat, with the Tories quoted evens and Labour third favourites at 16/1. The odds on Ukip winning are 25/1.

A full list of candidates in the Eastleigh byelection has yet to be confirmed.