In context: the local council elections 2008
Vicious smears, verbal tussles and the potential to send the ruling party into a tailspin: not a scene from All The President’s Men, but a biopsy of this year’s local council elections. MSN UK News weighs up the importance of the local polls.
With all the melodrama of the London mayoral elections and the colourful ding dong between Ken and Boris, you could (almost) be forgiven for forgetting some 4,000 council seats are also being fought over in Gordon Brown’s first electoral test since he succeeded Tony Blair.
It will not be an easy one. Brown’s brief premiership has been shaken by a succession of crises, from the loss of millions of people’s personal data to the near-collapse of the economy. At the same time, the resurgent opposition is soaring in the opinion polls - so much so, according to a recent ComRes survey, that the Conservatives would regain Whitehall with a 62-seat majority if this were a general election.
Interesting times
As Britons, we are living in interesting times - a fact reflected in the core issues being confronted on the campaign trail. As Home Office figures reveal fatal stabbings have increased by 25% since Labour came to power, Labour candidates are attempting to woo voters by campaigning on neighbourhood policing and crime prevention. Clawing Liverpool back from the Lib Dems is another top priority. But Reading, Labour’s last bastion behind enemy lines in the southeast, is tipped to slide into no overall control in what would be a devastating blow to Brown. Labour currently runs just 50 councils in England, compared to the 200 under Conservative control.
In the David Cameron camp, efforts are being focussed on ousting Labour from its traditional strongholds in the northern suburbs, while simultaneously squeezing the Liberal Democrats out of their southern and rural heartlands. The possibility that the Tories could enjoy their best local election performance since 1992 - perhaps even one that compares to the landslide of 1977 - has not yet been ruled out and local government experts have suggested they could even clinch North Tyneside: their first major foray into Labour’s turf.
Incendiary politics
Most of the seats being contested on May 1st were last fought over in 2004, when Labour suffered devastatingly heavy losses. A voter backlash against the invasion of Iraq at the time equated to big gains for the Lib Dems and various minority parties in major urban areas. This year, Labour’s vote is expected to hold up well in the northern metropolises, while the Conservatives will dominate the southern suburbs and New Towns.
The outcome could prove the clearest indication yet of what might happen at the next parliamentary election, due to be called by 2010. The fact local council elections usually fail to ignite the electorate in any significant number, due largely to the councils’ lack of any real powers, is likely to be overturned this year purely because national politics have become so incendiary.
Dour personality
“I’ve been involved politically since the late 80s and on the doorsteps I have not known it as positive (for the Conservatives) as it is today in all that 20 years,” said Andrew Cumpsty, leader of Reading council’s 14-strong Conservative group. “The national Gordon Brown issue is coming up a lot. His Scottish, dour personality is playing very badly with people here.”
While the party in government often fares badly in mid-term elections, the results of the local council elections will be scrutinised by media and analysts alike in a bid to foretell the outcome of the next national poll. Could Labour go on to secure another term - and if so, will Brown still be at the helm? Tune in after May 1 for full results and analysis.
By Laura Snook, News Editor
April 29 2008
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