Climate change: what's in store where you live?
South West:
On the high ground around Boscastle in Cornwall, 196mm of rain fell in just four hours on 16 August 2004. The local topography channelled the rainfall into the River Valency, which broke its banks, and a three metre high wall of floodwater crashed through the village, devastating everything in its path.
Climate change scenarios predicted by the South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership include summers becoming hotter and drier, altering natural habitats and placing greater strain on the region’s water resources. Winters will become wetter, resulting in increased flash flooding and storm damage.
Relative sea levels will continue to rise and extreme sea levels will become a more frequent occurrence. This means more coastal flooding, which, in turn, will have a detrimental impact on sea defences, beaches, harbours, homes, businesses, infrastructure, archaeological sites, maritime heritage and biodiversity. The issue of coastal erosion will also become increasingly severe.
The effects of climate change are already being felt in the region: certain wines produced in the area are considered as good as, if not better than, counterparts from Champagne in France, and olive groves are becoming an increasingly common sight.
The South West, already one of the warmest areas in the UK, is expected to become 1.0 to 2.5°C warmer – with winters up to 15% wetter – by 2060. The risk of flooding is expected to increase and storm surges, currently an intermittent threat, will become more frequent.
A report published by the South West Observatory predicts significant pressure on native flora and fauna. The golden plover has already stopped breeding in the region because of mild winters. National rarities such as Cornish heather and the smooth snake may even be lost. Some ecosystems will require special protection, such as the Dorset heaths, which could become tinderboxes in the long, hot, dry summers.
Nearly 20% of England’s ancient woodlands are in the South West. Their fragmentation means some species will be unable to migrate, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. The region’s coastal waters are on the boundary between warm southern and cool northern seas, which means they are rich in specie, but even the smallest of temperature shifts can significantly alter marine ecosystems.
The cost of mitigating the negative impacts of changing weather patterns, not least of building the necessary coastal defences, will be substantial. Buildings, bridges, power transmission lines, transport and heritage, including archaeological sites, are very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Find out what's in store elsewhere in the UK:
