Climate change: what's in store where you live?
Wales:
In February 2004, Trefriw and Llanrwst (Conwy) were cut off, buildings were flooded in 60cm of water and five schools were closed as floodwaters poured off Snowdonia. Main roads were cut off by associated landslides. These villages were flooded again when the River Conwy burst its banks in the New Year flooding of 2005.
Wales can expect warmer climes, according to predictions from The UK Climate Impacts Programme: temperatures will rise by between 1°C and 3° by 2080. Rainfall is expected to increase by as much as 24% during winter months, but summer months will see a decline. Sea levels are expected to rise by between 18cm and 79cm.
By 2025, providing adequate water supplies for parts of Wales during dry summers will prove difficult for the water industry. Eighteen of the 43 supply zones could go into water deficit over the next 25 years during dry summers, and more reservoirs – significantly bigger than existing ones – may have to be built.
A significant amount of the Welsh coast lies less than one metre above current sea level. When rising sea levels combine with storm surges of up to 1.9m out at sea, low-lying areas can expect to be flooded more frequently. A ten-fold increase in the risk of flooding by 2090 is not out of the question.
Much of the low-lying coastal land in Wales is of critical importance to the economy, whether for human habitation, agriculture, tourism, or for its natural habitats. The coastal and lowland zones, estuaries (Dee, Severn), salt marshes and sand dunes (such as Morfa Harlech) will suffer as a result of more intense storms and rising sea levels. But in many cases, “managed retreat” may prove too expensive an option.
Unless they’re artificially maintained, important raised bogs at Cors Erdrreiniog and Cors Tregaron could dry out altogether. Heather moorland, blanket bog and oak woodland, meanwhile, are all vulnerable to changes in soil condition. Forest, which covers 12% of Wales, will be damaged by an increased frequency of storms and high winds, and the spruce aphid may survive better over warm winters to inflict more damage the next year. Forest fires may be more frequent in dry summers.
Find out what's in store elsewhere in the UK:
