Climate change: what's in store where you live?
Northern Ireland:
The risk of more frequent and severe flooding of vulnerable areas of Belfast and Londonderry will increase under climate change.
Northern Ireland is expected to get warmer and wetter, with severe winter gales making a more frequent appearance. Temperatures are predicted to rise by 2 to 4°C by 2080. Summer rainfall may decrease by up to 45%, but winter rainfall is expected to increase by up to 30%. Sea levels are predicted to rise by as much as 74cm by the 2050s, with the nature of Northern Ireland’s coastal areas undergoing rapid – and possibly irreversible – change.
The fishing industry is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change, because seasonal cycles of fish reproduction are temperature dependent and sensitive to small temperature changes over relatively short time scales. Fishing communities in coastal areas, and those dependent on sport angling, will suffer the most adverse effects. The overall increase in rainfall, particularly intense rainfall, will affect flooding, water quality and the stability of exposed slopes.
The unique ecology of Northern Ireland will probably change as a result of the temperature fluctuations, opening the area up to potential invasion by more southerly, warmth-loving species, which will replace the cold-adapted species at the southernmost edge of their ranges. Impacts on the biodiversity of the raised bogs and blanket bogs, however, are not expected to be severe.
Agriculture is Northern Ireland’s most important industry. Most land will remain in pasture or silage production, but warmer temperatures could encourage more mixed agriculture, including spring-sown cereals. There is a risk of new diseases being introduced, as a result of increased rain and relative humidity favouring the transmission of infection. Rodent-borne diseases could also increase.
The region is heavily dependent on its transport links to the UK and Europe, and so is vulnerable to increased disruption or costs as a result of bad weather. Some modern high-speed vessels can’t operate in the sort of severe conditions coped with by more traditional ferries. As a result, ferry timetables are expected to be adversely affected by increasingly severe winter weather conditions, even if they occur less frequently than today.
Find out what's in store elsewhere in the UK:
